Mlb Draft Salary Slots 2019
With the signing deadline behind us and teams looking at a complete picture of their 2019 draft classes, it’s now possible to break down some of the numbers and see where and how major league teams are spending their money.
It’s also now possible to see how the industry valued the top 34 players in the country. Unlike drafts in other sports, baseball doesn’t have a hard-slotting system, which means the players don’t necessarily get taken in the order that the industry perceives their talent level.
The slot value for the #1 pick this year is $8,415,300. In using most of that slot money, Rutschman’s bonus breaks both the Mize post-2012 record and the Cole overall record. (Photo: 247Sports) Stay close to TigsTown's draft central for the latest on all of the Detroit Tigers 2019 MLB Draft selections! July 4 Update: The Tigers have now signed 33 of their 40 selections. 2019 Nba Draft Salary Slots, Armenian Express Poker! G pesawat tu 160 blackjack Braden Smith (round 2/37): 2019 nba draft salary slots.
For various financial reasons—or simply because a team values a certain player more or less than the industry does—it can be misleading to look at the first round and think you are looking at the top talent in the class.
Now, though, it’s as simple as lining up the top 34 players in the draft by signing bonus and seeing how different the order looks. Talented high school players like Matthew Allan and Hudson Head fell to the second day of the draft, but they made up for that drop by signing for bonuses that give them first-round bank accounts, even if they won’t be referred to as first-round picks.
Below, you can see how the 34 highest-paid 2019 draftees line up.
1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State ($8,100,000)
2. Bobby Witt, SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS ($7,787,400)
3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California ($7,221,200)
4. JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt ($6,670,000)
5. Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla. ($6,180,700)
6. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian ($5,432,400)
7. CJ Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS, Roswell, Ga. ($5,200,000)
8. Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia ($4,547,500)
9. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech ($4,400,000)
10. Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State ($4,097,500)
11. Keoni Cavaco, SS, Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif. ($4,050,000)
12. Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor ($3,997,500)
13. Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS, Austin ($3,900,000)
14. Bryson Stott, SS, Nevada-Las Vegas ($3,900,000)
15. Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS, Seattle ($3,745,500)
16. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto (Texas) JC ($3,450,000)
17. Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS, Cary, Ill. ($3,400,000)
18. Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State ($3,397,500)
19. George Kirby, RHP, Elon ($3,242,900)
20. Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M ($3,129,800)
21. Greg Jones, SS, UNC Wilmington ($3,024,500)
22. Zack Thompson, LHP, Kentucky ($3,000,000)
23. Hudson Head, OF, Churchill HS, San Antonio ($3,000,000)
24. Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane ($2,740,300)
25. Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton HS, Morristown, N.J. ($2,740,300)
26. Michael Toglia, 1B, UCLA ($2,725,000)
27. Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy, Statesboro, Ga. ($2,500,000)
28. Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS, Sanford, Fla. ($2,500,000)
29. Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS, Wilmington, N.C. ($2,450,000)
30. Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson ($2,424,600)
31. Michael Busch, 2B, North Carolina ($2,312,000)
32. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Morgan Academy, Selma, Ala. ($2,300,000)
33. Brady McConnell, SS, Florida ($2,222,500)
34. Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. ($2,202,200)
Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State ($8,100,000) 2. Bobby Witt, SS, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS ($7,787,400) 3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California ($7,221,200) 4. JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt ($6,670,000) 5. Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian.
Seeing how the money breaks down across different position groups can also be informative. Here are the top money-makers for each position group, as well as average signing bonus numbers for the total position group and the top 10 players at each group.
Top Paid Catchers
Top 10 Average Bonus — $1,746,750
Total (73) Average Bonus — $312,214
Adley Rutschmanset the all-time bonus record by signing for $100,000 more thanGerrit Coledid as the No. 1 overall selection by the Pirates in 2011. Rutschman topped the previous record for a catcher’s bonus by more than a million, clearing 2018 No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart’s $7,025,000 mark.
Teams largely prefer spending money on college catchers, as the high school backstop profiles is among the riskiest in the draft. That sentiment is made obvious by the fact thatEthan Hearnwas the sole prep catcher to appear among the top 10 catcher bonuses.
1. Adley Rutschman, Oregon State (Orioles) — $8,100,000
2. Shea Langeliers, Baylor (Braves) — $3,997,500
3. Korey Lee, California (Astros) — $1,750,000
4. Ethan Hearn, Mobile (Ala.) Christian HS (Cubs) — $950,000
5. Logan Driscoll, George Mason (Padres) — $600,000
6. Kyle McCann, Georgia Tech (Athletics) — $500,000
7. Philip Clarke, Vanderbilt (Blue Jays) — $497,500
8. Thomas Dillard, Mississippi (Brewers) — $397,500
9. Carter Bins, Fresno State (Mariners) — $350,000
10. Nick Kahle, Washington (Brewers) — $325,000
Top Paid First Basemen
Top 10 Average Bonus — $1,405,380
Total (38) Average Bonus — $404,587
Andrew Vaughnset the new record for highest-paid first baseman, surpassing Brendan McKay’s $7,005,000 bonus in 2017. McKay’s bonus was high because of his two-way status out of Louisville, however, and the previous high bonus for a first baseman outside of him was Eric Hosmer’s $6,000,000 bonus after the Royals took him with the No. 3 overall pick in 2008 out of American Heritage (Plantation, Fla.) High.
1. Andrew Vaughn, California (White Sox) — $7,221,200
2. Michael Toglia, UCLA (Rockies) — $2,725,000
3. Logan Wyatt, Louisville (Giants) — $997,500
4. Garrett Frechette, Orange (Calif.) Lutheran HS (Giants) — $797,500
5. Joseph Naranjo, Ayala HS, Chino Hills, Calif. (Indians) — $770,000
6. Tristin English, Georgia Tech (Diamondbacks) — $500,000
7. Mahki Backstrom, Serra HS, Gardena, Calif. (Braves) — $397,500
8. Andrew Daschbach, Stanford (Orioles) — $250,000
9. Jake Guenther, Texas Christian (Rays) — $197,600
10. Bryce Ball, Dallas Baptist (Braves) — $197,500
Top Paid Third Basemen
Top 10 Average Bonus — $1,820,750
Total (36) Average Bonus — $559,919
Third base is a lucrative position, as the group averaged the second-highest bonus when accounting for all players who signed. It’s unsurprising considering the track record of third basemen taken early in the draft and the fact that, generally, the position is full of the best hitters in the class.
Josh Jungwas the most lucrative third baseman in the 2019 class, but his $4,400,000 bonus ranks just eighth all time.Kris Bryantis still the most expensive third baseman after signing for $6,708,400 as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2013 draft. Texas sluggerBrett BatysurpassedNicholas Castellanos’ $3,450,000 bonus in 2010 to become the highest-paid high school third baseman in draft history.
1. Josh Jung, Texas Tech (Rangers) — $4,400,000
2. Brett Baty, Lake Travis HS, Austin (Mets) — $3,900,000
3. Kody Hoese, Tulane (Dodgers) — $2,740,300
4. Davis Wendzel, Baylor (Rangers) — $1,600,000
5. Nick Quintana, Arizona (Tigers) — $1,580,200
6. Aaron Schunk, Georgia (Rockies) — $1,102,700
7. Jared Triolo, Houston (Pirates) — $868,200
8. Drew Mendoza, Florida State (Nationals) — $800,000
9. Andre Lipcius, Tennessee (Tigers) — $733,100
10. Seth Gray, Wright State (Twins) — $483,000
Top Paid Shortstops
Top 10 Average Bonus — $3,795,410
Total (97) Average Bonus — $668,855
If you want to get paid, play shortstop. This is the position group that averaged the highest bonus in the 2019 class, both among the top 10 players for each position group and among all signed players. Shortstops become stars, either by sticking at the position at the major league level (Derek Jeter,Francisco Lindor,Carlos Correa), moving to third base (Chipper Jones,Manny Machado,Alex Bregman) or even the outfield (Gary Sheffield,Justin Upton,Adam Jones). By playing the toughest non-catcher position in the field and throwing righthanded, shortstops have the most flexibility on the positional spectrum and regularly find success at other positions if necessary.
The 2019 college shortstop class was routinely praised by scouts throughout the year, but it was three high school shortstops who topped the signing bonus list. BothBobby Witt Jr. andCJ Abramssigned for enough to join the list of top 10 highest paid shortstops of all time. In fact, Witt Jr. set the new bar for a shortstop signing bonus and is now the third-highest paid player in draft history behind Rutschman and Cole.
1. Bobby Witt, Colleyville (Texas) Heritage HS (Royals) — $7,787,400
2. CJ Abrams, Blessed Trinity HS, Roswell, Ga. (Padres) — $5,200,000
3. Keoni Cavaco, Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif. (Twins) — $4,050,000
4. Bryson Stott, Nevada-Las Vegas (Phillies) — $3,900,000
5. Will Wilson, North Carolina State (Angels) — $3,397,500
6. Braden Shewmake, Texas A&M (Braves) — $3,129,800
7. Greg Jones, UNC Wilmington (Rays) — $3,024,500
8. Anthony Volpe, Delbarton HS, Morristown, N.J. (Yankees) — $2,740,300
9. Logan Davidson, Clemson (Athletics) — $2,424,600
10. Gunnar Henderson, Morgan Academy, Selma, Ala. (Orioles) — $2,300,000
11. Brady McConnell, Florida (Royals) — $2,222,500
12. Nasim Nunez, Collins Hill HS, Suwanee, Ga. (Marlins) — $2,200,000
13. Rece Hinds, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (Reds) — $1,797,500
14. Kyren Paris, Freedom HS, Oakley, Calif. (Angels) — $1,400,000
15. Cameron Cannon, Arizona (Red Sox) — $1,300,000
16. Matthew Lugo, Beltran Baseball Academy, Florida, P.R. (Red Sox) — $1,100,000
17. Yordys Valdes, McArthur HS, Hollywood, Fla. (Indians) — $1,001,000
18. Christian Cairo, Calvary Christian HS, Clearwater, Fla. (Indians) — $955,000
19. Cody Freeman, Etiwanda HS, Rancho Cucamonga, Calif. (Rangers) — $900,000
20. Glenallen Hill, Baylor (Diamondbacks) — $850,000
Top Paid Second Basemen
Top 10 Average Bonus — $799,750
Total (38) Average Bonus — $244,947
Second baseman averaged the least amount in the 2019 class and was the only position group where the top 10 players didn’t average at least $1 million. OnlyMichael Busch,Tyler CallihanandChase Strumpfsigned for more than a million, and Busch and Callihan hardly spent any time at second base prior to getting drafted at the position.
Defensive questions generally surround second base prospects and only 12 players have been drafted as first-round second baseman this century, with Busch joining that group this year. But even with Busch, it’s possible that he winds up at first base or corner outfield in the future.Keston Hiura($4,000,000) has the highest signing bonus for a second baseman, followed byRickie Weeks($3,600,000) and now Busch.
1. Michael Busch, North Carolina (Dodgers) — $2,312,000
2. Tyler Callihan, Providence HS, Jacksonville (Reds) — $1,497,500
3. Chase Strumpf, UCLA (Cubs) — $1,050,300
4. Josh Smith, Louisiana State (Yankees) — $976,700
5. Eduoard Julien, Auburn (Twins) — $493,000
6. Michael Massey, Illinois (Royals) — $472,500
7. Gabe Holt, Texas Tech (Brewers) — $450,000
8. Ivan Johnson, Chipola (Fla.) JC (Reds) — $397,500
9. Cody Milligan, Cowley County (Kan.) JC (Braves) — $197,500
10. Isaac Collins, Creighton (Rockies) — $150,500
Top Paid Outfielders
Top 10 Average Bonus — $3,225,870
Total (158) Average Bonus — $368,208
The top 10 outfielders in the class averaged the second-highest bonus behind only shortstop, although the number of outfielders selected and signed brings the average overall bonus down to the middle of the pack.
JJ Bledaywas one of just two players (along with prep shortstopAnthony Volpe) who signed over-slot deals in the first round in 2019, and his $6,670,000 signing bonus is the most money any college outfielder has ever signed for. Bubba Starling—taken by the Royals with the No. 5 overall pick in 2011—is still responsible for the highest bonus by an outfielder of any source in the draft, whileBryce Harperand Donavan Tate are tied for third behind Starling and Bleday with $6,250,000 bonuses.Riley Greeneentered the top five outfielders with a $6,180,700 bonus.
1. JJ Bleday, Vanderbilt (Marlins) —$ 6,670,000
2. Riley Greene, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla. (Tigers) — $6,180,700
3. Hunter Bishop, Arizona State (Giants) — $4,097,500
4. Corbin Carroll, Lakeside HS, Seattle (Diamondbacks) — $3,745,500
5. Hudson Head, Churchill HS, San Antonio (Padres) — $3,000,000
6. Sammy Siani, Penn Charter HS, Philadelphia (Pirates) — $2,150,000
7. Kameron Misner, Missouri (Marlins) — $2,115,000
8. Matt Wallner, Southern Mississippi (Twins) — $1,800,000
9. Trejyn Fletcher, Deering HS, Portland, Maine (Cardinals) — $1,500,000
10. Joshua Mears, Federal Way (Wash.) HS (Padres) — $1,000,000
11. Matt Gorski, Indiana (Pirates) —$ 1,000,000
12. Colin Barber, Pleasant Valley HS, Chico, Calif. (Astros) — $1,000,000
13. Kyle Stowers, Stanford (Orioles) — $884,200
14. Dasan Brown, Abbey Park HS, Oakville, Ont. (Blue Jays) — $797,500
15. Zach Watson, Louisiana State (Orioles) — $780,400
16. Dominic Fletcher, Arkansas (Diamondbacks) — $700,000
17. Grant McCray, Lakewood Ranch HS, Bradenton, Fla. (Giants) — $697,500
18. Jake Sanford, Western Kentucky (Yankees) — $597,500
19. Erik Rivera, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Gurabo, P.R. (Angels) — $597,500
20. Stephen Paolini, St. Joseph HS, Trumbull, Conn. (Braves) — $597,500
Top Paid Righthanders
Top 10 Average Bonus — $2,813,550
Total (393) Average Bonus — $236,904
It was a down year for pitching, and that’s reflected in the signing bonuses. Alek Manoah’s $4,547,500 bonus was the highest of the 2019 class, but good for just 14th among righthanders all time. Manoah was the first righthander selected in the draft and on only two other occasions (1975 and 1980) did it take until the 11th pick for a righthander to get selected.
Best Draft Picks 2019 Mlb
It was a notable year for junior college righthanders, however, asJackson Rutledgebecame the ninth member of that demographic to sign for at least $1 million and set a new record for JuCo righthanders by surpassing Nate Pearson’s 2017 bonus ($2,452,900) with the Blue Jays.
Righthanders are coveted, and the top 10 players of the group averaged the third-highest bonus behind shortstops and outfielders, but the vast number of righthanders selected drags the overall average down to last.
1. Alek Manoah, West Virginia (Blue Jays) — $4,547,500
2. Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto (Texas) JC (Nationals) — $3,450,000
3. Quinn Priester, Cary-Grove HS, Cary, Ill. (Pirates) — $3,400,000
4. George Kirby, Elon (Mariners) — $3,242,900
5. Daniel Espino, Georgia Premier Academy, Statesboro, Ga. (Indians) — $2,500,000
6. Matthew Allan, Seminole HS, Sanford, Fla. (Mets) — $2,500,000
7. Brennan Malone, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (Diamondbacks) — $2,202,200
8. Josh Wolf, St. Thomas HS, Houston (Mets) — $2,150,000
9. Matthew Thompson, Cypress Ranch HS, Houston (White Sox) — $2,100,000
10. JJ Goss, Cypress Ranch HS, Houston (Rays) — $2,042,900
11. Ryan Jensen, Fresno State (Cubs) — $2,000,000
12. Andrew Dalquist, Redondo Union HS, Redondo Beach, Calif. (White Sox) — $2,000,000
13. Seth Johnson, Campbell (Rays) — $1,722,500
14. Kendall Williams, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. (Blue Jays) — $1,547,500
15. Evan Fitterer, Aliso Niguel HS, Aliso Viejo, Calif. (Marlins) — $1,500,000
16. Ryan Garcia, UCLA (Rangers) — $1,469,900
17. Drey Jameson, Ball State (Diamondbacks) — $1,40,0000
18. Jack Kochanowicz, Harriton HS, Rosemont, Pa. (Angels) — $1,247,500
19. Matt Canterino, Rice (Twins) — $1,100,000
20. Ryne Nelson, Oregon (Diamondbacks) — $1,100,000
21. Jimmy Lewis, Lake Travis HS, Austin (Dodgers) — $1,097,500
22. Alec Marsh, Arizona State (Royals) — $904,300
23. Tyler Baum, North Carolina (Athletics) — $900,000
24. Isaiah Campbell, Arkansas (Mariners) — $850,000
25. Karl Kauffmann, Michigan (Rockies) — $805,600
Top Paid Lefthanders
Top 10 Average Bonus — $1,938,200
Total (127) Average Bonus — $266,638
It was a down year for pitching across the board, and that impacted lefties as well as righties. Lodolo was the first pitcher (of either hand) selected, and his $5,432,400 bonus with the Reds makes him the fifth-highest paid southpaw in the draft, behindMacKenzie Gore($6,700,000),Carlos Rodon($6,582,000),Danny Hultzen($6,350,000) andDavid Price($5,600,000).
Blake Walstonwas the highest-paid prep lefty in the 2019 class and one of just 10 high school lefthanders who signed this year. His $2,450,000 bonus is good for 19th all time among prep lefties.
1. Nick Lodolo, Texas Christian (Reds) — $5,432,400
2. Zack Thompson, Kentucky (Cardinals) — $3,000,000
3. Blake Walston, New Hanover HS, Wilmington, N.C. (Diamondbacks) — $2,450,000
4. T.J. Sikkema, Missouri (Yankees) — $1,949,800
5. Ethan Small, Mississippi State (Brewers) — $1,800,000
6. John Doxakis, Texas A&M (Rays) — $1,127,200
7. Antoine Kelly, Wabash Valley (Ill.) JC (Brewers) — $1,025,100
8. Brandon Williamson, Texas Christian (Mariners) — $925,000
9. Avery Short, Southport HS, Indianapolis (Diamondbacks) — $922,500
10. Tommy Henry, Michigan (Diamondbacks) — $750,000
Somewhere out there is the next great star. Maybe it will be the first player taken in the MLB draft or another first-round pick. Maybe it will be somebody buried deeper in the draft, like second-rounder Nolan Arenado or fourth-rounder Cody Bellinger. It could be a college player or a 17-year-old kid. It's part scouting expertise and part luck.
Here are some questions and issues heading into Monday's first round, the first of three days of drafting:
Click here for Keith Law's latest mock draft
Will the Orioles draft Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman No. 1?
Some have called Rutschman the best top overall prospect since Bryce Harper in 2010. He's a switch-hitting catcher with defensive skills, power potential and huge numbers with the Beavers: .427/.584/.772 with 16 home runs in 171 at-bats and nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts. The stat line backs up the scouting reports that he's an elite-level talent, and as Keith Law wrote on his big board of the top 100 prospects, Rutschman's floor is that he'll be a longtime big league catcher because of his defense, and the ceiling is an All-Star catcher because of his power.
If the Orioles take him first, Rutschman will be the fifth catcher taken first overall:
1966: Steve Chilcott, Mets
1970: Mike Ivie, Padres
1971: Danny Goodwin, White Sox (did not sign)
1975: Danny Goodwin, Angels
2001: Joe Mauer, Twins
Goodwin is a great trivia question, the only player to be drafted first overall twice (he ended up playing just 252 games in the majors, none of them at catcher). Chilcott and Ivie were high school catchers. Chilcott, famously drafted one spot ahead of Reggie Jackson, never made the majors, and Ivie had to move to first base. Mauer has the second-most career WAR of any catcher drafted in the first round, behind only that of Craig Biggio, who moved to second base after four seasons behind the plate with the Astros.
The Giants took Georgia Tech backstop Joey Bart second overall last year, the first catcher selected that high since Mauer. In comparing Rutschman with Bart, the obvious difference is control of the strike zone during their junior seasons:
Rutschman: 69 walks, 36 strikeouts
Bart: 41 walks, 56 strikeouts
Even factoring in that the ACC might be a tougher league than the Pac-12, that's a big edge for Rutschman. Bart struck out a lot for an elite college hitter -- similar to Mike Zunino, the third overall pick in 2012, who has struggled to hit for average in the majors -- adding some risk to his profile. I see no such risk with Rutschman.
So why wouldn't the Orioles draft him? They could draft Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn or high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to save money in their bonus pool allotment that they could then use later in the draft to give an over-slot bonus to a high school player.
Will Witt go second overall to the Royals?
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In a year in which Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio have made their big league debuts, it's fitting that one of the top prospects is the son of a former major leaguer. Bobby Witt Sr. won 142 games in a 16-year career and was the third overall pick in 1985, so if Witt Jr. goes this high, it would make them the highest-drafted father-son duo, surpassing Tom Grieve (the sixth pick in 1966) and Ben Grieve (second in 1994).
While Witt is a five-tool talent, there is one potential red flag: He turns 19 in June, making him one of the older high school prospects in the draft. Third baseman Brett Baty, like Witt a Texas high schooler, is 17th on Keith's big board, but he's already 19½. Rany Jazeryerli first studied the impact of draft age for high school hitters in a series of articles years ago at Baseball Prospectus, writing that 'a team that drafted one of the five youngest high school hitters selected among the top 100 picks could expect more than twice as much value from him as a team that selected one of the five oldest high school hitters.'
Two of the most famous No. 1 overall picks were 17 on draft day: Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Carlos Correa was 17 when the Astros drafted him first overall in 2012. Mike Trout didn't turn 18 until August of his draft year. Rany presented a list of examples, concluding that 'young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.'
This doesn't mean that Witt and Baty aren't worthwhile first-round picks or that Witt doesn't deserve to go second overall. It's just another data point that teams will throw into their evaluations, and their statistical models won't like that these players are older.
In the other direction, shortstops Gunnar Henderson (No. 41 on Keith's board) and Kyren Paris (No. 49) are two players who could outperform their draft slots, as they don't turn 18 until later in the year.
When will the first pitcher go?
Keith Law has said this is the weakest draft class in his 18 years of scouting the draft for the Blue Jays and ESPN, and is especially weak in college pitching.
Keith's top eight players are position players, and he projects the first pitcher to go to the Reds at No. 7. The mock drafts at MLB.com, The Athletic and FanGraphs predict the same scenario (Keith, The Athletic and MLB.com have the Reds going with TCU lefty Nick Lodolo, while FanGraphs predicts West Virginia righty Alek Manoah). If the first six picks end up being position players, it would be a draft first. The first five picks in 2005 were all hitters: Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun. (That was a legendary first round that also included Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Jacoby Ellsbury.)
High school pitchers versus college pitchers
This is one of the longest-standing draft debates. Eno Sarris recently reported at The Athletic that the average age of first-round pitchers has dropped in recent seasons. Indeed, when I checked the number of high school and four-year college players selected in the first 30 picks, the trend is away from college pitchers (though the trend is toward a few more position players in the first round, not necessarily toward high school pitchers):
2006-2010: 43 college pitchers, 30 high school pitchers
2014-2018: 35 college pitchers, 31 high school pitchers
Those numbers don't answer the question, however, of whether high school or college pitchers are the better bet. I recently wrote an article asking 'Where do the best starting pitchers come from?' I created a list of the 75 best starters, 60 of which came via the draft. The breakdown:
College: 34
Junior college: 2
High school: 24
That would seem to point to favoring college pitchers, but of the 35 first-round picks out of those 60 pitchers, 18 were college guys, and 17 were high school players. It doesn't seem like there is any obvious trend here or reason to focus on one group.
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Who is the most interesting pitcher in the draft?
Elon right-hander George Kirby is fascinating because of his 107-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Keith Law has him No. 24 on his board, and two of the mock drafts have Kirby going at No. 14 to the Phillies. He has size (6-foot-4) and hits 95 mph, but Keith writes that he wouldn't be a first-rounder in a typical year. He's also from a small college -- Elon plays in the Colonial Athletic Association -- and you don't see many first-round pitchers from non-power conferences. (The Mariners took Stetson righty Logan Gilbert last year, hoping he follows in the path of late-round picks Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.)
Who is the most interesting hitter in the draft?
Vanderbilt outfielder JJ Bleday had six home runs his first season but broke out with 25 home runs this year and will be one of those hitters to go in the top six. His 45-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio is good, but it pales in comparison to that of Rutschman, and elite college hitters usually have more walks than K's, so Bleday might have swing-and-miss issues as a pro.
Arizona State outfielder Hunter Bishop, a potential top-10 pick, is the younger brother of Mariners outfielder Braden Bishop and broke out with 22 home runs. He has some swing-and-miss concerns as well, however, with a 22 percent strikeout rate.
Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers is a first-rounder based on his stud defense and leadership, and while there are questions about his bat, he suffered a broken hamate bone early in the season (returning after missing just three weeks), and on Saturday, he had a record-setting three-homer, 11-RBI game in the NCAA tournament.
Which team has the most to gain from this draft?
Obviously, the teams at the top of the draft have to hit their picks -- young, good players are more important than ever, and if you're going to tank, you better take advantage -- but this could be an important day for the future of the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks don't pick until 16th, but after losing Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock as free agents, they have the most bonus pool money and also pick 26th, 33rd, 34th, 56th, 74th and 75th -- that's seven of the first 75 picks. This is somewhat reminiscent of 2011, when the Rays had 10 of the first 60 picks. The Rays almost flubbed that entirely, though they did end up with Blake Snell. The Diamondbacks hope to find their own Snell -- and two or three other future major leaguers.