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If you’re growing tired of losing money at the Seneca Niagara Casino, where the odds are worse than any casino in Las Vegas, you might consider sports betting.
First, consider the “house edge,” the built-in advantage every casino has for every game. The house edge varies from game to game, but whether you’re playing blackjack, craps or slot machines the end result is the same: If you play long enough you lose all your money.
Seneca Niagara has one of the highest house advantages anywhere. Few serious gamblers go there. An inside joke amongst pros is that Seneca once thought of giving its customers a complimentary dunce cap as a consolation prize.
Betting on sports is a smarter gamble. And if you know what you are doing, you can play and win money indefinitely.
Sports betters are offered a 10-cent line or “dime line” with point spreads set by the odds-maker. Whichever team you place a wager on, whether it is the favorite or underdog, you risk 10 percent more than you can win. If you bet $110 you can win $100. The $10 is the house’s commission or “vigorish” for taking whatever bet you want to make. It’s how sportsbooks and bookmakers make money on their wagers. Betting the 10-cent line requires you to win 52.38% of your wagers to break even. When you are able to consistently achieve a percentage higher than this, you are no longer “gambling” you are an investor.
This is often a better plan than betting on stocks, bonds or the commodities market.
Baseball is bet differently than the dime line. A money line based on odds is used. All your team has to do is win. What makes betting on the money line a challenge is that popular or successful teams like the New York Yankees often require a wager of $170, $180 or $200 to win $100. These odds help the bookmaker balance his bets by encouraging customers to bet on both sides and a reason different books offer different odds. You have to shop around.
In case I might be misunderstood, I am not advocating anything illegal. In repressive and anti-freedom countries and states, it may be illegal for a citizen to bet on sports, a curious form of tyranny. Some governments are so hypocritical and repressive that less profitable forms of gambling are allowed, particularly if they are controlled through the government or through tricky schemes the government makes with certain tribes or Sovereign Nations.
In the backwards, nearly third world state known as New York, the people there may legally bet on horse races or poor-odds lotteries if they bet through the state, or walk into Casinos operated by people of a different race, with horrible odds, but should the people themselves do the same thing, or offer better odds, they head straight off to prison.
This article is meant for the citizen of the world who lives in a liberty-loving land. And for those readers in New York with its repressive culture of dominating the individual, while taxing him to the extent that he always has an excellent incentive to leave the state, as so many have done, this article is meant as purely informational. Head to Nevada if you want a little taste of freedom and lower taxes.
Meanwhile, a bit of detail: Be aware that most people tend to bet favorites. Odds-makers know it and factor it into point spreads and money lines, forcing favorite players to pay a premium for their preferences. This makes betting underdogs a better value. Sometimes betting underdogs alone, with some selectivity and strategy, can be an entertaining way to supplement your income.
Similarly, most gamblers prefer to bet “overs” rather than “unders” when betting on totals - the gamble of betting over or under the total number of points or runs scored by both teams. Those who bet overs get the short end of the stick from odds-makers who know people tend to bet that way. This makes unders the more desirable option.
Betting against “public opinion” is the best way to go. In the world of sports-betting, like most other aspects of life, the majority is usually wrong. That’s why sportsbooks and bookies rarely go out of business. If the public could accurately gauge the outcome of sporting events, there would be nobody left to take their bets. Find out what teams the public “likes” and look for reasons to bet the other side. The more lopsided the percentage of people backing a team, the greater the probability it is destined to be a losing bet.
Get used to watching movements of the point-spread or money line. Line moves occur when there is disproportionate action on one team and enable the bookmaker to balance his action. Some line moves are precipitated by over-zealous amateurs rushing to cash in on what appears a sure thing. Others are the result of syndicates or “sharps” who actually know a good thing when they see it and are making the most of the opportunity. Line moves toward favorites are usually the result of amateur action while line moves toward underdogs are usually the handiwork of sharps.
Perhaps the most important tool for success is money management. Undisciplined gamblers bet too much per game, looking to strike quick. These usually don’t finish the season. Professional gamblers generally consider betting 1-2% of their bankroll per game as the safe way to avoid going bust. For example, if your bankroll is $100,000 you shouldn’t be wagering more than $1,000 or $2,000 per game.
The law of probability makes winning and losing streaks inevitable. If you’re betting too much and experience a losing streak early, you won’t be around for the winning streak to follow.
Also, avoid betting your favorite team or televised games just to have “action”. Remember, you are not a gambler; you’re an investor. You have no favorite team. This is business.
Prior to the start of the season, line up your bookies or offshore sportsbooks so you have enough outlets to get your bets in. Nothing is more frustrating than not being able to place the last solid $10,000 or $20,000 of solid, disciplined plays.
If you’re going to sign up with an offshore sportsbook, be certain to research them. Some are more reputable than others. Most are dishonest. Many a story has been told of big winners being suddenly dropped as customers without collecting what is rightfully theirs. Many sportsbooks are located in countries like Costa Rica and Jamaica where there is no Better Business Bureau to hear your grievance.
With Major League Baseball in full swing, let’s look at some helpful hints that will keep you in the black: The analysis of “starting pitchers” is the big factor in determining odds. Successful baseball bettors devote most of their time charting pitchers. Some pros insist analyzing pitching match-ups amounts to 75% of baseball handicapping.
Another useful strategy is to bet winning streaks. Baseball lends itself to long winning and losing streaks. Many successful baseball bettors bet on a team after it wins three games in a row and ride the streak as long as it lasts. Often odds-makers are slow to adjust their lines accordingly. In any event, if you make a habit of betting against teams on a winning streak you’re asking for trouble.
When betting on baseball totals, pay close attention to each team’s average runs scored per game, earned run average of starting pitchers, weather and umpires. Wind speed and direction can turn routine fly balls into home runs, affecting total runs and outcomes of your wagers. Also, know umpires like you know pitchers. Each one has his own strike zone. Those with large strike zones are pitcher’s umpires. Those with small strike zones are hitter’s umpires. Factor this in.
Ultimately, every successful gambler will develop his “style.” If you stay in long enough, you will acquire a “feel” for making smart plays and make money, instead of flushing your hard-earned dough figuratively speaking down the toilet at the casino.